How the estimate is made

  1. Enter a forecast landfall location and the forecast wind speed at landfall.
  2. The distance from the landfall point to each union boundary is measured (UTM 46N).
  3. A wind reduction factor is applied to the landfall wind: 0.9807 × exp(−0.003 × distance in km) .
  4. Unions with an estimated wind of 118 km/h or higher are flagged.

Framework

The framework uses forecasts from five models (BMD, IMD, ECMWF, GFS, JTWC). Readiness: at least two forecast 118 km/h or higher in the target districts 3-5 days before landfall. Action: the same, up to 72 hours before landfall. Target districts: Satkhira, Khulna, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Noakhali.

ECMWF tracks are also checked automatically every hour, with the same calculation, and summarised by email.

Framework document